Why honest confidence wins
You don’t have to be certain. You just have to say how certain you are.
Last updated · Study Room
In a confidence quiz, distribute 100% across four answers. If two answers feel equally likely, you can split your confidence between them.
Your score is the natural logarithm of the probability you gave the correct option. Higher is better: certainty on the right answer scores zero; a uniform forecast scores about −1.386.
Assigning zero to the correct answer gives negative infinity. Reporting your actual beliefs maximizes your expected score. The goal is calibration, not pretending to know.
Answers stay private until everyone eligible submits or the 20-second deadline expires. Use the reveal to compare reasoning, not just rankings.
const score = Math.log(probabilityOfCorrectAnswer / 100);